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1998 Governor · CT

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 491 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 67%

R+41.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.44% · Republican 62.90%

R+27.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 67 = -41.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.435 − 62.900 = -27.465
  3. Signed miss = -41.00 − (-27.465) = -13.535
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.535| = 13.535

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26207, race ID 1438 (538 database).