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1998 Senate · SC

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 806 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 44%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.70% · Republican 45.67%

D+7.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.698 − 45.670 = 7.028
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (7.028) = -2.028
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.028| = 2.028

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26175, race ID 1745 (538 database).