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1998 Governor · NY

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 808 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 54%

R+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.47% · Republican 44.59%

R+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 54 = -25.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.466 − 44.591 = -14.125
  3. Signed miss = -25.00 − (-14.125) = -10.875
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.875| = 10.875

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26162, race ID 1455 (538 database).