1998 Senate · NC
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 827 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 44%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.01%
D+4.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 51.151 − 47.012 = 4.139
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (4.139) = -5.140
- Absolute miss = |-5.140| = 5.140
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26149, race ID 1739 (538 database).