1998 House · AR-2
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 420 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 35%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.97% · Republican 42.03%
D+15.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 35 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 57.973 − 42.027 = 15.946
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (15.946) = 3.055
- Absolute miss = |3.055| = 3.055
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26097, race ID 1862 (538 database).