1998 Senate · AL
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 808 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 29% · Republican 62%
R+33.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.69% · Republican 63.24%
R+26.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 29 − 62 = -33.00
- Actual margin = 36.691 − 63.242 = -26.551
- Signed miss = -33.00 − (-26.551) = -6.450
- Absolute miss = |-6.450| = 6.450
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26095, race ID 1717 (538 database).