1998 Governor · AL
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 808 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.81% · Republican 42.19%
D+15.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 57.811 − 42.189 = 15.622
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (15.622) = -9.622
- Absolute miss = |-9.622| = 9.622
The poll overstated the Republican by 9.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26095, race ID 1433 (538 database).