1998 Senate · CA
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 1998-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 883 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 44%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.06% · Republican 43.01%
D+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 53.057 − 43.012 = 10.045
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (10.045) = -5.046
- Absolute miss = |-5.046| = 5.046
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26068, race ID 1721 (538 database).