1998 Senate · CA
Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) · fieldwork ended 1998-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 678 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 42%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.06% · Republican 43.01%
D+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 53.057 − 43.012 = 10.045
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (10.045) = -1.046
- Absolute miss = |-1.046| = 1.046
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26033, race ID 1721 (538 database).