1998 Governor · CA
Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) · fieldwork ended 1998-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 678 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 39%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.97% · Republican 38.38%
D+19.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 57.968 − 38.377 = 19.591
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (19.591) = -5.591
- Absolute miss = |-5.591| = 5.591
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26033, race ID 1436 (538 database).