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2000 Senate · NY

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.19% · Republican 39.15%

D+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.187 − 39.148 = 12.039
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (12.039) = -13.038
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.038| = 13.038

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25947, race ID 1703 (538 database).