Skip to content

2000 Senate · NY

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.19% · Republican 39.15%

D+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.187 − 39.148 = 12.039
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (12.039) = -8.038
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.038| = 8.038

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25941, race ID 1703 (538 database).