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2000 President · MO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.08% · Republican 50.42%

R+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.084 − 50.423 = -3.339
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-3.339) = 1.339
  4. Absolute miss = |1.339| = 1.339

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25934, race ID 830 (538 database).