2000 Governor · MO
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 41%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.12% · Republican 48.21%
D+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 41 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 49.120 − 48.206 = 0.914
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.914) = 1.086
- Absolute miss = |1.086| = 1.086
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25934, race ID 1421 (538 database).