2000 Governor · MO
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 45%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.12% · Republican 48.21%
D+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 45 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 49.120 − 48.206 = 0.914
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (0.914) = -4.914
- Absolute miss = |-4.914| = 4.914
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25931, race ID 1421 (538 database).