2000 Senate · MO
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 45%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.47% · Republican 48.39%
D+2.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 50.467 − 48.393 = 2.074
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.074) = 0.927
- Absolute miss = |0.927| = 0.927
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25928, race ID 1697 (538 database).