2000 Governor · MO
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 42%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.12% · Republican 48.21%
D+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 42 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 49.120 − 48.206 = 0.914
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.914) = 0.086
- Absolute miss = |0.086| = 0.086
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25928, race ID 1421 (538 database).