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2000 President · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 666 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 50%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.44% · Republican 49.99%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 50 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.440 − 49.986 = -3.546
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-3.546) = -4.454
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.454| = 4.454

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25897, race ID 841 (538 database).