2000 Senate · ME
Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 19% · Republican 73%
R+54.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.06% · Republican 68.94%
R+37.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 19 − 73 = -54.00
- Actual margin = 31.059 − 68.941 = -37.882
- Signed miss = -54.00 − (-37.882) = -16.117
- Absolute miss = |-16.117| = 16.117
The poll overstated the Republican by 16.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25884, race ID 1691 (538 database).