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2000 President · MT

Montana State University Billings · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 403 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 51%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.37% · Republican 58.44%

R+25.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 51 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.365 − 58.439 = -25.074
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-25.074) = 7.074
  4. Absolute miss = |7.074| = 7.074

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25829, race ID 832 (538 database).