2000 Governor · MT
Montana State University Billings · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 403 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 42%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.08% · Republican 50.98%
R+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 47.083 − 50.985 = -3.902
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-3.902) = 6.902
- Absolute miss = |6.902| = 6.902
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25829, race ID 1422 (538 database).