Skip to content

2000 Senate · FL

Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2000-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 606 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 40%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 46.19%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 40 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.044 − 46.192 = 4.852
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (4.852) = -1.851
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.851| = 1.851

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25743, race ID 1687 (538 database).