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2002 Senate · TX

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 43.33% · Republican 55.30%

R+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.326 − 55.300 = -11.974
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-11.974) = 11.973
  4. Absolute miss = |11.973| = 11.973

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25696, race ID 1679 (538 database).