2002 Governor · TX
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 602 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 50%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.96% · Republican 57.81%
R+17.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 50 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 39.961 − 57.808 = -17.847
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-17.847) = 3.848
- Absolute miss = |3.848| = 3.848
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25696, race ID 1413 (538 database).