2002 Senate · TX
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 602 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 46%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.33% · Republican 55.30%
R+12.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 43.326 − 55.300 = -11.974
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (-11.974) = 7.973
- Absolute miss = |7.973| = 7.973
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25695, race ID 1679 (538 database).