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2002 Governor · TX

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 602 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 52%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.96% · Republican 57.81%

R+17.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 52 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.961 − 57.808 = -17.847
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-17.847) = -0.152
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.152| = 0.152

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25695, race ID 1413 (538 database).