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2002 Senate · MO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.67% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.667 − 49.799 = -1.132
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.132) = 1.132
  4. Absolute miss = |1.132| = 1.132

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25677, race ID 1666 (538 database).