2002 Governor · MN
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 34% · Republican 35%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.46% · Republican 44.37%
R+7.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 34 − 35 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 36.461 − 44.372 = -7.911
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-7.911) = 6.912
- Absolute miss = |6.912| = 6.912
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25675, race ID 1399 (538 database).