2002 Senate · MN
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 44%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.34% · Republican 49.53%
R+2.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 47.336 − 49.529 = -2.193
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-2.193) = 7.193
- Absolute miss = |7.193| = 7.193
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25674, race ID 1664 (538 database).