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2002 Governor · IL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 802 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43.2% · Republican 43.5%

R+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 52.19% · Republican 45.07%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.2 − 43.5 = -0.30
  2. Actual margin = 52.193 − 45.069 = 7.124
  3. Signed miss = -0.30 − (7.124) = -7.423
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.423| = 7.423

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25671, race ID 1392 (538 database).