2002 Senate · GA
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 44%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.90% · Republican 52.73%
R+6.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 45.896 − 52.734 = -6.838
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-6.838) = 8.838
- Absolute miss = |8.838| = 8.838
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25669, race ID 1653 (538 database).