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2002 Governor · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 642 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 52%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.21% · Republican 58.62%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 52 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.214 − 58.618 = -20.404
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-20.404) = 6.404
  4. Absolute miss = |6.404| = 6.404

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25650, race ID 1402 (538 database).