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2002 Governor · AR

Opinion Research Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 46%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.95% · Republican 53.01%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.947 − 53.008 = -6.061
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-6.061) = 4.061
  4. Absolute miss = |4.061| = 4.061

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25560, race ID 1384 (538 database).