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2002 Governor · AR

Opinion Research Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.95% · Republican 53.01%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.947 − 53.008 = -6.061
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-6.061) = 0.061
  4. Absolute miss = |0.061| = 0.061

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25559, race ID 1384 (538 database).