2002 Senate · MI
Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 32%
D+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.61% · Republican 37.88%
D+22.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 32 = 26.00
- Actual margin = 60.609 − 37.885 = 22.724
- Signed miss = 26.00 − (22.724) = 3.277
- Absolute miss = |3.277| = 3.277
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25554, race ID 1663 (538 database).