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2002 Governor · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 35%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.42% · Republican 47.40%

D+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 35 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.417 − 47.398 = 4.019
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (4.019) = 7.981
  4. Absolute miss = |7.981| = 7.981

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25554, race ID 1398 (538 database).