Skip to content

2002 Senate · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 27%

D+34.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.61% · Republican 37.88%

D+22.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 27 = 34.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.609 − 37.885 = 22.724
  3. Signed miss = 34.00 − (22.724) = 11.277
  4. Absolute miss = |11.277| = 11.277

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25553, race ID 1663 (538 database).