2002 Senate · SD
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 805 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 45%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.62% · Republican 49.47%
D+0.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 49.624 − 49.466 = 0.158
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.158) = 1.842
- Absolute miss = |1.842| = 1.842
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25536, race ID 1677 (538 database).