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2002 Governor · SC

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 49%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.05% · Republican 52.85%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 49 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.046 − 52.849 = -5.803
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-5.803) = -1.197
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.197| = 1.197

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25533, race ID 1410 (538 database).