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2002 Governor · NM

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 37%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.49% · Republican 39.05%

D+16.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 37 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.488 − 39.046 = 16.442
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (16.442) = -2.442
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.442| = 2.442

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25532, race ID 1403 (538 database).