2002 Governor · IL
Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2002-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 701 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 37%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.19% · Republican 45.07%
D+7.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 37 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 52.193 − 45.069 = 7.124
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (7.124) = 2.877
- Absolute miss = |2.877| = 2.877
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25515, race ID 1392 (538 database).