2002 Governor · SD
Gallup · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 685 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 54%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.92% · Republican 56.77%
R+14.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 54 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 41.925 − 56.767 = -14.842
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-14.842) = 0.843
- Absolute miss = |0.843| = 0.843
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25472, race ID 1411 (538 database).