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2002 Governor · AR

Gallup · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 616 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 55%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.95% · Republican 53.01%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 55 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.947 − 53.008 = -6.061
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-6.061) = -8.939
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.939| = 8.939

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25469, race ID 1384 (538 database).