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2002 House · NH-1

Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication · fieldwork ended 2002-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 466 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 43%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.48% · Republican 58.11%

R+19.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 43 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.482 − 58.108 = -19.626
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-19.626) = 12.626
  4. Absolute miss = |12.626| = 12.626

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25468, race ID 2959 (538 database).