2002 Governor · MI
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 39%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.42% · Republican 47.40%
D+4.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 39 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 51.417 − 47.398 = 4.019
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (4.019) = 6.981
- Absolute miss = |6.981| = 6.981
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25452, race ID 1398 (538 database).