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2002 Governor · OR

DHM Research · fieldwork ended 2002-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 608 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 42%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.03% · Republican 46.16%

D+2.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.029 − 46.155 = 2.874
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.874) = 3.127
  4. Absolute miss = |3.127| = 3.127

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25448, race ID 1407 (538 database).