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2002 Governor · CO

Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 25% · Republican 62%

R+37.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.65% · Republican 62.62%

R+29.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25 − 62 = -37.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.652 − 62.621 = -28.969
  3. Signed miss = -37.00 − (-28.969) = -8.031
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.031| = 8.031

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25432, race ID 1386 (538 database).