Skip to content

2002 Senate · CO

Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 44%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.77% · Republican 50.70%

R+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 44 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.769 − 50.696 = -4.927
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-4.927) = -3.074
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.074| = 3.074

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25431, race ID 1651 (538 database).