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2002 Senate · CO

Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 41%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.77% · Republican 50.70%

R+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 41 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.769 − 50.696 = -4.927
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-4.927) = 2.926
  4. Absolute miss = |2.926| = 2.926

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25427, race ID 1651 (538 database).