2002 Senate · CO
Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 41%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.77% · Republican 50.70%
R+4.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 41 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 45.769 − 50.696 = -4.927
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-4.927) = 5.926
- Absolute miss = |5.926| = 5.926
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25426, race ID 1651 (538 database).